Oil Markets Grapple With the Unthinkable as $200 Becomes Part of the Conversation

The mention of $200 oil — once confined to the most extreme scenarios — has entered mainstream market conversation Thursday after Iran’s military warned that prices could reach that level if the conflict continues. Brent crude was already near $100 a barrel, having touched $100.29 during the session, and the trajectory of the conflict gives investors little reason to discount the possibility of further dramatic price increases. The energy market is operating in territory it has never occupied before.
Iran’s military spokesperson issued the warning while Iranian forces simultaneously struck merchant ships, fuel tanks, oil tankers, and export terminals across the Gulf region. The Thai vessel Mayuree Naree was hit near the Strait of Hormuz, with three crew members reported trapped. Iraq shut all crude exports and Oman cleared its Mina Al Fahal terminal of vessels.
Brent gained 9% Thursday to briefly touch $100.29 before settling at $98. West Texas Intermediate rose 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has climbed from $60 at the year’s start to a peak of $119 this week. The Strait of Hormuz has been functionally closed since February 28. Saudi Aramco warned of catastrophic market consequences.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude from 32 member nations. The US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. President Trump pledged to continue the military campaign and said prices would fall when the conflict ends. Energy Secretary Wright accused Iran of deliberately threatening allied energy security.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel from $66. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.2%, and European gas prices gained 7.7%.